US Solar to Pass Wind in 2025, and Coal by 2028
Published · 3 min read
Solar keeps leading new electricity additions in the United States. From January to July 2025, developers added about 16 GW of solar out of 21.5 GW total new capacity. That’s nearly three-quarters of all additions, and it marks another strong year for utility-scale solar.
Analysts now expect solar to surpass wind in 2025. They also see solar overtaking coal by 2028 on an installed-capacity basis. This outlook is based on federal “high probability” pipelines for new projects and a steady pace of coal retirements.
Why it matters:
- Clean power grows while coal exits.
- Developers deliver projects month after month.
- Rising demand gives new generation room to run.
The numbers behind the shift
Federal data shows solar and wind together made up roughly 90% of new US generating capacity through July 2025. Solar led the charge in July in particular, with reports showing it supplied the vast majority of that month’s additions.
Solar’s pace this year builds on a strong first half. Earlier in 2025, FERC’s updates showed solar providing more than three-quarters of capacity growth through April. The trend never really slowed.
Today’s mix: gas leads, coal shrinks, solar and wind rise
In the installed base, natural gas still leads by a wide margin. By mid-2025, FERC tallied gas near 42% of capacity. Coal sat just under 15%, while wind and solar hovered close to 12% each. These shares explain why the upcoming crossovers are so close.
| Resource | Approx. US capacity share (mid-2025) | Status |
| Natural Gas | ~42% | Largest share today |
| Coal | ~15% | Declining as units retire |
| Wind | ~12% | Plateauing relative to solar |
| Solar | ~12% | Fastest growth path |
Looking ahead: 2028 and beyond
FERC’s project pipeline shows a clear direction. Its “high probability additions” point to no new coal coming online through July 2028. Instead, about 63 coal plants are expected to retire, removing roughly 25 GW. That would take coal from about 198 GW to near 173 GW.
Over the same period, FERC expects around 92.6 GW of new solar. That would lift total installed solar to roughly 250 GW by mid-2028, which would be about 44% higher than coal at that point. If these projects land on time, solar becomes the nation’s second-largest resource by capacity, behind gas.
Demand is rising, so additions have a market
For years, US electricity use barely moved. That’s changing fast. A national study by Grid Strategies showed the five-year demand forecast jumping to about 15.8% growth by 2029. The shift comes from data centers, manufacturing, and electrification.
- Data centers need large, steady power.
- Factories and clean-tech plants are opening.
- Vehicles and buildings use more electricity as they electrify.
Because demand is up, developers have more room to build. That helps explain why solar additions stay high this year. It also supports more storage, which firms up solar output later in the day.
July’s signal month
July 2025 was a strong month for solar. Reports based on FERC data show solar supplied the vast majority of that month’s new capacity. Wind and gas added smaller amounts. The July surge is one reason analysts are comfortable with a 2025 solar-over-wind crossover.
July 2025 takeaways:
- Solar dominated monthly US additions.
- Momentum continued from earlier in the year.
- Pipeline depth points to more projects ahead.
What could slow things down?
The path is strong, but it’s not perfect. Interconnection queues are still long. Some regions need more transmission to move power. Policy shifts can change timelines. Yet, most indicators still point to fast solar growth through the decade.
- Queues: Projects wait years for grid studies.
- Wires: New lines take time to permit and build.
- Supply chains: Better than 2022–2023, but still important to watch.
Bottom line
The data tells a simple story. Solar is the main source of new US power in 2025. It’s set to pass wind this year. And, because coal keeps retiring, solar is on track to pass coal by 2028. If the current pipeline holds, solar will become the second-largest US resource by installed capacity, right behind gas.
For detailed data and monthly filings, readers can visit the FERC website. Coverage and analysis of the latest updates appear in several trade outlets that track federal reports and additions each month.
