U.S. Might Not Reach 100 % Renewable Energy Until 2148

A new study says that if the United States keeps growing clean energy at the current rate, it might not reach 100 % renewable energy until the year 2148 — far into the future. This estimate comes from research by a Stanford University professor that looked at how countries are adding renewable power like solar and wind.

This finding shows that the U.S. is making progress with renewables, but not fast enough to fully eliminate fossil fuels and pollution quickly. The report gives a realistic view of where things stand and shows how much faster countries may need to act to reach climate goals.

What the Study Says

According to the study:

• If the U.S. adds about 43 GW (gigawatts) of new renewable capacity each year — the pace seen in early 2025 — then it would reach net-zero carbon emissions and nearly all renewable energy use by about 2148.
• This includes cleaning up all energy sectors like electricity, transportation, heating, and industry by electrifying them and powering them with renewables.
• The slow pace isn’t because renewables don’t work — the report points to social and political barriers rather than technical or economic ones.

The study looked at 150 countries and when each country might reach full renewable energy and clean air pollution standards.

China Is Moving Faster

The study also highlights China’s rapid progress:

• In the first ten months of 2025, China added about 397 GW of renewable generating capacity — almost ten times faster than the U.S. during that same period.
• At that pace, China might achieve nearly 100 % clean energy and zero carbon pollution by around 2051 — much sooner than the U.S. forecast.

That doesn’t mean China will definitely meet all its goals, but it shows how quickly renewables can grow with strong commitment and industrial effort.

Why Renewable Growth Matters

Reaching 100 % renewable energy means clean power for all energy uses — not just electricity:

• Electricity generation from solar, wind, hydro and other renewables would replace coal, oil and gas.
• Transportation, heating and industry would shift from fossil fuels to electricity or green fuels.
• This would cut carbon emissions — the main cause of global warming — and reduce air pollution, which harms health.

Right now, the U.S. is adding a lot of new renewable capacity:

• Solar and wind have led new power plant additions for years.
• Solar alone is often the fastest-growing source of new power.

Still, the total share of clean energy needs to grow faster to reach climate goals sooner than 2148.

What Slows the Transition?

The study points out several reasons why the U.S. pace is slower than needed:

Policies and Planning

• Rules for siting new projects can be slow or complicated.
• Policies that incentivize renewables sometimes change from year to year.

Grid and Infrastructure Needs

• Adding more renewable energy means updating the electric grid to handle more variable power.
• Storage like batteries also must grow so solar and wind can supply power when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing.

Investment and Politics

• The study suggests that obstacles are social and political, not technical.
• This means Americans and leaders need stronger commitment and policies to speed up the clean energy transition.

Global Renewable Energy Trends

While the U.S. pace may be slow compared with what’s needed for 100 % renewables by mid-century, renewable energy growth continues worldwide:

• Solar and wind are the largest sources of new electricity capacity year after year — often more than 80 % of additions.
• Other countries, like China and many in Europe, are setting faster targets and adding renewables rapidly.

This means the global clean energy transition can still succeed — if all countries accelerate their efforts.

Bottom Line

A recent study suggests that at the current U.S. pace of adding renewable energy, the country would not reach 100 % clean energy until about 2148 — far beyond common climate targets. Stronger policies, faster deployment and broader electrification will be needed to speed up the transition and reduce carbon pollution sooner.