Texas Solar Is Set to Pass Coal for the First Time on ERCOT Grid

Texas is still an oil and gas powerhouse. But on its main electric grid, solar power is now moving past coal.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration says utility-scale solar generation in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, known as ERCOT, is expected to beat coal generation for the first time on an annual basis in 2026. ERCOT supplies power to about 90% of Texas, including the Houston area.

The numbers are direct.

The EIA expects solar generation in ERCOT to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026. Coal is forecast at 60 billion kilowatt-hours. That is not a small symbolic lead. It is an 18 billion kilowatt-hour gap.

That does not mean coal is gone. It does not mean natural gas has lost its top spot. Natural gas still remains the largest source of electricity in ERCOT, averaging about 44% of generation from 2021 to 2025. But the direction is clear. Solar is growing. Coal is shrinking.

This is Texas. Not California. Not a state built around clean energy branding. Texas is making the shift because the math works.

Solar’s Rise Has Been Fast

Solar power in ERCOT has grown quickly over the last few years. From 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from 4% to 12%. Over the same period, coal’s share fell from 19% to 13%.

That is the real story.

Solar did not beat coal because coal vanished overnight. Solar beat coal because Texas kept adding capacity. Developers built more projects because the state has strong sunlight, lots of available land, and a power market that rewards low-cost electricity.

The EIA said utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as new solar capacity helps meet fast-growing electricity demand.

That matters because Texas is not dealing with flat demand. The state is growing. Homes are being built. Businesses are expanding. Data centers, industrial sites, and electrified oil and gas operations are putting more pressure on the grid.

The grid needs more power.

Solar is showing up.

The Monthly Breakthrough Came First

The annual crossover is expected in 2026, but solar already beat coal on a monthly basis before that.

In March 2025, solar generation in ERCOT reached 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours, while coal generated 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. That was the first time solar topped coal for a month in the ERCOT region. Solar continued to beat coal monthly through August of that year.

The EIA expects a similar pattern in 2026. Solar is estimated to have exceeded coal again in March and is forecast to keep beating coal until December, when coal generation is expected to move back ahead for the month. In 2027, the EIA expects solar to beat coal in every month except January and December.

That seasonal pattern makes sense.

Solar production is strongest when days are longer and sunlight is stronger. Coal can still matter more in winter months when solar output drops.

But the yearly trend is not subtle.

2027 Looks Even Bigger

The forecast does not stop at 2026.

For 2027, the EIA expects solar generation in ERCOT to reach 99 billion kilowatt-hours. Coal is forecast at 66 billion kilowatt-hours.

That would widen the gap further.

If the forecast holds, solar will not just pass coal once. It will start to build distance.

Texas is also expected to play a huge role in national solar growth. The EIA predicts that about 40% of U.S. solar capacity added in 2026, equal to 14 billion kilowatt-hours, will come from Texas.

That is the key point.

Texas is not just participating in the solar boom. It is driving a major part of it.

Why Texas Solar Is Winning

The reason solar is growing in Texas is not complicated.

It is cheap, fast to build, and useful during high-demand periods.

Summer power demand in Texas often spikes when air conditioners are running hard. Solar output is strong during hot, sunny afternoons, which is exactly when the grid needs help. That does not solve every reliability problem, but it gives ERCOT a lot of power at a critical time.

Solar also has a low operating cost once installed. No fuel shipment. No coal train. No gas pipeline. No fuel-price exposure.

That makes it attractive in a competitive power market.

The basic economics are doing the work:

• Solar costs have fallen.
• Texas has strong sun.
• Large land areas are available.
• Developers can build at scale.
• Demand is rising.
• Coal plants are older and less competitive.

That is why the shift is happening even in a state closely tied to fossil fuels.

Coal’s Role Is Getting Smaller

Coal was once a major part of Texas electricity. It still contributes. But its position has weakened.

Coal plants are expensive to operate compared with cheap renewables and natural gas in many hours of the day. They also face pollution costs, aging infrastructure, and competition from newer resources.

Solar does not need to beat coal every hour to beat it over a year. It only needs enough generation across enough days and months.

That is now happening.

Coal will still be used in ERCOT, especially during certain winter periods or when other resources are lower. But the EIA forecast shows coal moving into a smaller role in the state’s power mix.

That is a big shift for Texas.

Natural Gas Still Leads

This is where the story needs balance.

Solar passing coal does not mean solar is taking over the grid by itself. Natural gas remains the biggest source of electricity in ERCOT. It averaged 44% of generation between 2021 and 2025.

Gas plants provide flexible power that can run when needed. That matters as electricity demand grows. It also matters when solar output falls in the evening or during cloudy weather.

So the Texas grid is not becoming solar-only. It is becoming more mixed.

Solar is growing fast. Gas remains central. Wind is still important. Batteries are becoming more valuable. Coal is losing ground.

That is the grid Texas is building.

Demand Growth Is the Pressure Point

ERCOT is also dealing with rising power demand.

In April, ERCOT projected nearly 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in its territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand reached 85.5 gigawatts in August 2023.

ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said Texas is seeing exceptional growth and development, which is changing how large load demand is identified, verified, and used in long-term planning. He said the latest forecast is higher than expected because of that changing load-growth picture.

That is the challenge.

Texas needs more electricity. A lot more.

The question is not whether the state builds new power. It will. The question is what kind of power gets built fastest and cheapest while keeping the grid stable.

Solar is proving it can take a bigger piece of that job.

What This Means

The solar-over-coal crossover is more than a clean energy talking point. It shows a real market change inside one of the country’s most important power systems.

Key facts:

• Solar is forecast to generate 78 billion kilowatt-hours in ERCOT in 2026.
• Coal is forecast to generate 60 billion kilowatt-hours.
• This would be the first annual solar-over-coal crossover in ERCOT.
• Solar first beat coal monthly in March 2025.
• Solar’s ERCOT share rose from 4% to 12% from 2021 to 2025.
• Coal’s share fell from 19% to 13% over the same period.
• Natural gas remains the largest source of ERCOT power.
• Texas is expected to provide about 40% of U.S. solar capacity additions in 2026.

The Bottom Line

Texas solar is not winning because of slogans. It is winning because developers can build it, the grid needs it, and the economics are strong.

Coal is not disappearing tomorrow. Natural gas is still the biggest player. But the direction of travel is obvious.

Solar is moving from side player to major power source on the Texas grid.

That is the headline.

In the state most associated with fossil energy, sunlight is now set to generate more electricity than coal.