EVs, Renewables, and Heat Pumps Could Cut Fossil Fuel Imports by 70%, New Analysis Shows

Electric vehicles alone could save the world $600 billion a year in fuel costs as a new wave of clean energy technology offers nations a path to genuine energy independence, according to research from Ember Energy.

Unlike the oil crises of the 1970s, today’s energy disruptions are happening in a world that now has real alternatives.

A Different World From 1973

When OPEC cut oil supplies in 1973, there were no meaningful alternatives. The average American car travelled only 12 miles per gallon. Strategic petroleum reserves barely existed. Economies collapsed under the weight of the shock.

Today, the global oil market holds more than 8.2 billion barrels in strategic reserves. Renewable energy accounted for 46 percent of global installed power capacity by the end of 2024. The structural conditions have changed completely.

Brent crude was forecast to average around $60 per barrel in 2026, reflecting a market with surplus supply rather than scarcity. Global production outpaced consumption by more than 2.5 million barrels per day in the final two quarters of 2024, the largest such build since 2000.

The Electrotech Alternative

Researchers use the term “electrotech” to describe the combined system of solar, wind, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and battery storage. Together, these technologies could reduce fossil fuel imports by approximately 70 percent across major energy sectors.

The physics is a key driver. Combustion engines waste more than two-thirds of their input energy as heat. By contrast, solar panels, wind turbines, EVs, and heat pumps operate at roughly three times the efficiency of fossil fuel systems.

Costs have followed the same direction. Solar prices have fallen 90 percent since 2010. Battery storage costs dropped 89 percent over the same period. Utility-scale solar now costs 4.4 cents per kilowatt-hour, compared with around 10 cents for fossil fuel generation.

Electric Vehicles Lead the Charge

Global EV sales reached 18.5 million units in the first eleven months of 2025, up 21 percent year-on-year. In China, EVs already account for roughly half of all new car sales.

The financial case for buyers is increasingly clear. Switching to an EV can save a driver up to $14,500 over 15 years compared with a petrol vehicle. At the national level, the impact is already visible. The 1.5 million EVs on UK roads by 2023 reduced oil consumption by the equivalent of 14 million barrels, roughly two weeks of national supply.

Scaled globally, EVs alone could deliver $600 billion per year in fuel savings, according to the Ember analysis.

Heat Pumps Transform Home Energy

Heat pumps are doing for buildings what EVs are doing for transport. They use about four times less fossil fuel energy than gas boilers and cut household energy consumption by an average of 40 percent.

In the United States, heat pumps have outsold gas furnaces every year since 2021. In 2025, manufacturers shipped 3.6 million heat pumps compared with 3.2 million gas furnaces.

Europe accelerated adoption after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Annual European heat pump sales surged 38 percent in 2022 as governments recognised the technology as a direct route away from gas import dependency.

Meeting the European Union’s heat pump targets could reduce the bloc’s gas import bill by €60 billion and lower household heating costs by 20 percent by 2030.

Renewables Now Outproduce Coal

The scale of renewable deployment has reached a historic milestone. For the first time, during the first half of 2025, the world generated more electricity from renewable sources than from coal.

More than 90 percent of all new electricity capacity added worldwide in 2024 came from renewables. China alone adds approximately 1.2 gigawatts of solar capacity every day, equivalent to a new nuclear plant.

Battery storage is keeping pace. Global capacity reached 37.4 gigawatts by October 2025, with a pipeline of 187 gigawatts projected by 2030.

Energy Independence Is Now Within Reach

The Ember research concludes that every country has the potential to achieve energy independence through electrotech, because solar, wind, and electricity infrastructure can be built domestically without relying on imported fuel.

The 70 percent import reduction figure covers the three largest energy end-uses: electricity generation, transportation, and building heat. Industrial processes, aviation, and shipping create residual fossil fuel needs that electrotech does not yet fully address, leaving the remaining 30 percent harder to cut.

Still, even reaching that 70 percent threshold would represent a fundamental shift in how nations manage energy risk, ending the kind of vulnerability that made the 1970s crises so destructive.

Barriers Remain

Policy changes in the United States have created short-term uncertainty. Following the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in 2025, wind and solar investment in the first half of the year fell 18 percent to around $35 billion.

Developing economies face a separate challenge. Despite strong economics, higher borrowing costs make it harder for lower-income nations to finance renewable projects. Analysts say closing this financing gap is one of the most critical unresolved issues in the global energy transition.

The economics of electrotech, however, remain intact regardless of policy shifts, with renewables already cheaper than fossil fuels in most markets without subsidies.

Sources

• Ember Energy: The Energy Security Fall Out, From Fossil Fuel Fragility to Electric Independence
• IRENA: Renewable Power Generation Costs 2023
• IEA: Global EV Outlook 2024