ESAI Power’s 10-Year Forecast Focuses on REC Market Trends Through 2032

ESAI Power has released a long-term forecast that looks at the Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) markets in three major U.S. power regions: PJM, New England (ISO-NE), and New York (NYISO). The report studies how solar, wind, hydropower, and energy storage affect supply and demand. It also shows how state rules and real-world project timing can move prices out to 2032. 

The forecast provides Class I REC price outlooks for PJM and New England, and it closely monitors the supply and demand balance in New York. ESAI calls this coverage part of its Renewables Watch product line, which updates policy and market drivers each quarter. 

How ESAI Builds the Forecast

ESAI uses tracking tools to ground the outlook in actual project progress, not just plans on paper. The Generation Asset Monitor reviews each new plant and each expected retirement in ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM, and MISO. Every project gets a “probability of completion” score. This helps build a realistic view of future capacity and likely REC supply.

ESAI also follows contracted offshore wind through its Offshore Wind Monitor. Those contracts are vital to New England and New York. Their timing can shape REC balances and price paths.

Regions at a Glance

What Is Moving Prices

ESAI points to a set of steady drivers across all three markets:

• RPS mandate changes that raise or lower demand for Class I RECs.

• Independent System Operator (ISO) load forecasts that change the scale of clean energy needed.

• State RFPs for solar and wind that steer the development pipeline and contract timing.

• Technology and cost shifts in solar, wind, hydro, and storage that affect project viability.

• Interconnection and permitting delays that push commercial dates and alter near-term supply.

• Federal incentives that help projects but can change and add uncertainty.

In short, the balance of supply and demand is still the main price lever. If supply runs ahead, prices can dip. If policy-driven demand grows faster than new builds, prices can lift. Timing often matters more than totals.

What Stakeholders Should Watch

• Developers: REC revenue helps projects pencil out. Queue timing and contract milestones can make or break the model.

• Investors and banks: Price visibility supports risk control and entry timing across PJM, ISO-NE, and NYISO.

• Policymakers: Clear projections support stable RPS rules and better procurement design.

• Large buyers: Corporate procurement trends continue to shape demand for clean power.

• Consumers: REC costs can flow into bills, so price paths affect affordability.

Method in Practice

ESAI’s approach mixes bottom-up project tracking with regular policy reviews. The Generation Asset Monitor assigns a completion probability to each plant. That percentage feeds the build and retirement timeline. It reduces over-counting and helps avoid “paper megawatts.” The Offshore Wind Monitor then follows key contracts and milestones in the water, which is crucial for New England and New York.

This method anchors the Renewables Watch outlook, which delivers price forecasts in PJM and ISO-NE and keeps a tight watch on NYISO’s supply-demand balance through 2032.

Bottom Line Through 2032

• PJM: If interconnection moves faster, new supply could pressure prices. But delays or withdrawals could firm them.

• New England: Strong goals and offshore wind contracts support higher pricing relative to peers.

• New York: Rising demand and evolving pipelines argue for continued monitoring before full price curves.