Countries Hold Two-Thirds of the World’s Rare Earth Reserves But Mine Almost None of Them
Published · 3 min read
Brazil, India, Vietnam, and Russia sit on some of the largest deposits of rare earth elements on Earth. Yet nearly all of the world’s mining happens somewhere else entirely.
China accounted for nearly 70% of global rare earth production in 2024. Meanwhile, the countries holding most of the reserves remain on the sidelines.
A Striking Gap Between Reserves and Output
When reserve shares are placed side by side with production shares, the gap is hard to ignore.
China holds 49% of known global reserves and produces roughly 70% of global supply. That production share is far higher than its geological footprint would suggest.
Brazil holds 23% of known global reserves but produces only a tiny fraction of global output. India, Vietnam, and Russia also sit on significant deposits while contributing less than 1–2% of total production combined.
The world’s rare earth wealth is spread across multiple continents. The mining is not.
Why the Minerals Stay in the Ground
The gap between reserves and production is not about geology. It is about infrastructure.
China began investing heavily in rare earth mining and processing in the 1990s. The government subsidized producers, accepted high environmental costs, and built the processing plants needed to turn raw ore into usable material.
Other countries never matched that investment. As a result, they have the deposits but lack the facilities to process what they dig up.
Processing is the critical step. Without it, raw ore has little commercial value. China controls an estimated 85–90% of global rare earth processing capacity, meaning ore mined in other countries often travels to China anyway.
Why This Matters Beyond Energy
Rare earth elements are not niche materials. Electric vehicle motors and wind turbine generators depend on permanent magnets made from them. So does some military hardware.
As the clean energy transition accelerates, demand for these materials is rising. The rare earth magnet market is projected to grow from $21.98 billion in 2025 to $30.01 billion by 2030.
Countries that depend almost entirely on a single supplier for a material this important face real supply risk. That risk became visible in April 2025, when China imposed export restrictions on several heavy rare earth elements, sending prices sharply higher.
China Northern Rare Earth Group set its concentrate price for the second quarter of 2026 at roughly $5,390 per metric ton, a 44.6% increase from the previous quarter.
Moves to Close the Gap
Some of the reserve-rich nations are beginning to act.
India announced a 163 billion rupee National Critical Mineral Mission in January 2025, targeting exploration, processing, and recycling across the rare earth value chain. A follow-on scheme approved in November 2025 aims to develop 6,000 metric tons of annual magnet production capacity.
Brazil’s government has stated the country could become one of the world’s top five rare earth producers within years. Several international mining firms are already developing projects there.
In Vietnam, Australian company Lynas signed a framework agreement in March 2026 to build a metal processing facility, marking the country’s first serious step toward rare earth production at scale.
The United States committed $1.4 billion in late 2025 to support domestic magnet manufacturing and recycling. A new heavy rare earth separation facility is planned for Louisiana, with construction expected to begin in 2026.
A Long Road Ahead
New mines take time. The average lead time for mines that came online between 2020 and 2023 was nearly 18 years from discovery to production. Processing facilities take an additional 3 to 5 years to build and operationalize.
The geological potential is clearly there. What remains missing is the infrastructure to use it, and building that infrastructure will not happen quickly.
References
- Our World in Data: Rare Earth Reserves vs. Production
- U.S. Geological Survey: Mineral Commodity Summaries — Rare Earths
- Center for Strategic and International Studies: Rare Earth Supply Chain Analysis
